Scenario planning and analysis remind me of a weather forecast that predicts the likelihood of sunny, rainy, or stormy days, helping us to prepare for various outcomes.

In the financial world, many financial modelers use three cases to reveal the outcomes they are seeking: worst-case, base-case, and best-case. I call that ceiling for floor planning, and that’s not a criticism of such planning, assuming the high and low scenarios are possible and plausible.

I use a technique that differs from this standard practice of scenario planning and analysis. I’m not calling it better, but if forces CEOs and their leadership teams to think about their thinking.

I’m going to explain my process through a fictional story about Jane, a new CEO of an organic vitamins and supplements company. But first, some backstory is needed.